国际贸易与中国的实际经济周期_基_省略_闭与开放经济的RBC模型比(11)

2007年第5期

EducationPress&Springer-Verlag,Vol.2,pp.234—255.

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Williamson,J.,1994,“EstimatingEquilibriumExchangeRates”,inEssaysonAlternativeApproachestoCalculatingLong-runRealExchangeRatesinPractice,Washington,D.C.:InstituteforInternationalEconomics.

Wilson,Peter,2001,“ExchangeRatesandtheTradeBalanceforDynamicAsianEconomies-DoestheJ-CurveExistforSingapore,MalaysiaandKorea?”,OpenEconomiesReview12,389—413.

AnAlgorithmoftheDesirableAppreciationScaleofRMB:

aCommentonRMBEquilibrium-Exchange-RateStudy

WangXiandCaiGuowei

(LingnanCollegeattheSunYat-senUniversity)

Abstract:AftercommentingontherationaleandfeasibilityofcurrentRMBequilibrium-exchange-rateresearch,thepaperconcludesthatcurrentapproachesfailincalculatingthedesirableappreciationscaleofRMB.Inviewofthis,wedesignanew

algorithmtocalculateexchange-ratemisalignment.Weaimatutilizingefficientlytheinformationembodiedinforwardexchangeratemarketbyapplyingrationalexpectationtechniqueundertheframeworkofequilibrium-exchange-raterevertingmechanism.Anewpricingformulaisthenderivedandempirically,byconstructingtheexternalrealeffectiveexchangerateindexandusingRMBNDFdata,weshowthatRMBshouldbeappreciatedby4.39%bytheendofJunein2005.KeyWords:AppreciationScale;RMB;Algorithm;EquilibriumExchangeRateJELClassification:F310,F320,E580

(责任编辑:王利娜)(校对:晓　鸥)

(上接第26页)

Uribe,Martin,1997,“HabitFormationandtheComovementofPricesandConsumptionduringExchange-rateBasedStabilizationPrograms”,InternationalFinanceDiscussionPapers598.

InternationalTradeandtheRealBusinessCycleofChina

———AComparativeRBCStudyinaClosedvs.anOpenEconomy

LiHao,HuYonggangandMaZhiyao

(FacultyofBusinessatNingboUniversity;ShanghaiUniversityofFinanceandEconomics;XiangtanUniversity)

Abstract:ThisthesisfirstdisplaysthestylizedfactsofChina'smacroeconomicfluctuations:itsconsumptionishighlycorrelatedwithGDP,investmentfluctuatesmorethanoutput,andnetexportiscountercyclical.Itconstructs3RBCmodelsofaclosedeconomy,asmallopeneconomyandasmallopeneconomywithgovernmentsector.Oursimulationresultsfromthesemodelsshowthatthefirstmodelofclosedeconomyexplainsabout48.26%,24.39%and98.50%ofrealfluctuationsinoutput,consumptionandinvestmentrespectively;resultsfromasmallopeneconomyare69.51%,68.70%,98.50%withatrade-balance-to-GDPratioof97.42%;thebestresultscomefromasmallopeneconomywithgovernmentpurchase,theyare83.91%、81.95%、99.63%withatrade-balance-to-GDPratioof209.68%.Overall,open-economymodelperformsbetterthanclosedonesandanopeneconomywithgovernmentpurchaseshockperformsbetterthananopeneconomywithoutit.Theintroductionofgovernmentpurchaseshockintothemodelgreatlyimprovessimulationresults.KeyWords:RealBusinessCycle;SmallOpenEconomy;DynamicGeneralEquilibrium;ProductivityShockJELClassification:E32,F47,D58,E23

(责任编辑:成　言)(校对:晓　鸥)

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