驾车的人比同一天上午10点钟驾车的人死亡风险高出100多倍，有人格障碍的人比一般人死亡风险高10倍。Similarly ,someone driving at 3:00a.m. Sunday is more than 100 times more likely to die than someone driving a 10:00a.m. Sunday. Someone with a personality disorder is 10 times more likely to die .亚当斯说，假如这个人还喝醉了，汇总所有这些因素并分别加以考虑，就会得到一个具有统计性的预测：一位心理失常又喝醉酒的青年男子在午夜驾车，7个小时后一位头脑清醒的中年妇女驾车去教堂，前者发生严重交通事故的概率比后者高270万倍。And let’s say he’s also drunk . Tally up all these factors and consider them independently ,says Adams , and you could arrive at a statistical prediction that a disturbed, drunken young man driving in the middle of the night is 2.7 million times more likely to be involved in a serious accident than would a sober middle-aged women driving to church seven hours later.
6问题的要点就在于风险并不是孤立存在的，它会受到许多因素的影响，包括承担风险所带来的种种回报——无论是财产方面的、身体方面的，还是情感方面的。The bottom line is that risk doesn’t exist in a vacuum and that there are a host of factors that come into play ,including the rewards of risk, whether they are financial ,physical or emotional .这正是风险赖以存在的真实的人类社会。亚当斯说，这才是问题的关键，正如他把近期的一篇博客题目定为《关键的是置人于死地的东西，而不是数字》。It is this very human context in which risk exists .That is key ,says Adams ,who titled one of his recent blogs ;What kills you matters -not numbers.我们对风险的反应多半取决于它在多大程度上是自发的行为(如戴水肺潜水)、是不可避免的(如公共交通)、还是强加给我们的(如空气质量)；取决于我
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们认为在多大程度上是我们能控制的(如驾驶)或是由别人控制的(如乘飞机)；还取决于这种潜在危险在多大程度上是出于好意(如医生的指令)、无意的(如自然因素)或恶意的(如谋杀和恐怖活动)。Our reaction to risk very much depends on the degree to which it is voluntary (scuba diving ), unavoidable (public transit ) or imposed (air quality ), the degree to which we feel we are in control (driving )or at the mercy of others (plant travel ),and the degree to which the source of possible danger is benign (doctor’s orders), indifferent (nature)or malign(murder and terrorism).我们每天要做几十遍风险计算，但是可以确信的是，多数时候人们对风险的计算自然而然或者说是出自本能，以至于我们几乎注意不到我们在做计算。We make dozens of risk calculations daily , but you can book odds that most of them are so automatic or visceral - that we barely notice them.
Unit Nine
住房危机走向郊区小
迈克尔·格伦沃尔德
在过去的五年里，弗吉尼亚州费尔法克斯县的住房价格增长速度是家庭收入增长速度的12倍．In the past five years, housing prices in Fairfax county, Virginia have grown 12 times as fast as household incomes. Today, the county’s average family would have to spend 54 of its income to afford the county’s average home;in 2000,the figure was 26. 今天，该县中等家庭不得不将其收入的54％用于购买位于该县的普通住房；在2000年，这个数字是26％。形势如此严峻，以至于费尔法克斯县最近开始对年收入90，000美元的家庭提供住房补贴；很快，这个数
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字可能提高到110，000美元。The situation is so dire that Fairfax recently began offering housing subsidies to families earning 90000 a year; soon, that figure may go as high as 110000 a year.
1富兰克林·罗斯福总统曾经说经济大萧条造成1／3的美国人住房简陋、衣衫褴褛、营养不良，然而70年后的今天，美国人却是穿着考究、营养日益过剩。但是，廉价房稀缺是一场日益加深的民族危机，而不仅仅是依靠福利为生的城市家庭的危机。Seventy years after President Franklin D.Roosevelt declared that the Depression had left one-third of the American people“ill-housed,ill-clothed and ill-nourished.” Americans are well-clothed and increasingly over nourished. But the scarcity of affordable housing is a deepening national crisis, and not just for inner-city families on welfare. 这个问题已经波及中产阶级，并向郊区蔓延，在那里服务工作者及其家属挤在过于狭小的公寓里，大学毕业生不得不借宿在父母家，而消防队员、警察和教师在他们所服务的社区也买不起房。The problem has climbed the income ladder and moved to the suburbs, where service workers cram their families into overcrowded apartments, college graduates have to crash with their parents, and firefighters, police officers and teachers can’t afford to live in the communities they serve.
2住房拥有率接近历史最高位，但有房户和无房户之间的差距越来越大，有房户和房子离工作单位80英里远的有房户之间的差距也越来越大。Home ownership is near an all-time high, but the gap is growing between the Owns and the Own-Nots---as well as the Own-80-Miles-From-Work. 现在，1／3的美国人花费至少30％的收入用于住房，联邦政府将这种情况定义为“无力支付”的负担，
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而有一半的穷打工仔花费至少50％的收入用于租房，这种情况被称为“极其严重”的负担。One-third of Americans now spend at least 30 of their income on housing, the federal definition of an “unaffordable” burden, and half the working poor spend at least 50 of their income on rent, a “critical” burden.在过去10年里，房地产迅猛发展，这使得在此之前就已经购置房产的美国人大赚特赚了一把，但现在廉价房对中、低收入的美国人来说，是一个比税收、社会保险、汽油价格更严重的问题。The real estate boom of the past decade has produced windfalls for Americans who owned before it began, but affordable housing is now a serious problem for more low and moderate-income Americans than taxes, Social Security or gas prices.
3美国曾经非常关注廉价房问题。American used to care a lot about affordable housing. 1934年和1937年，罗斯福签署了住房立法，提供抵押贷款、政府公寓，并为那些穷困潦倒的工人提供建筑工作。Roosevelt signed housing legislation in 1934 and 1937 ,providing mortgages ,government apartments and construction jobs for workers down on their luck .1949年，国会树立了官方目标——“让每一个美国家庭都能拥有一个体面的家和宜居环境，”而到了1974年，尼克松总统开始对数以百万计的低收入租户在私有住房方面提供租金补贴凭单。In 1949, Congress set an official goal of “a decent home and a suitable living environment for every American family,” and in 1974, President Richard M.Nixon began offering subsidized rent vouchers to millions of low-income tenants in private housing.半个世纪以来，在华盛顿发生的大多数住房方面的辩论都围绕着一个主题：即应该在多大程度上扩大联邦政府的资助。 For half a century, most housing debates in Washington revolved around how much to expand federal assistance.
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4但在过去20年中，唯一的联邦住房新提案就是HOPE VI，也就是克林顿政府拆毁80,000单位的最差公共住房，重建混合收入寓所来取而代之。But for the past tow decades, the only new federal housing initiative has been HOPE VI, a Clinton administration program that has demolished 80000 units of the worst public housing and built mixed-income developments in their place.该计划已经拆除了大部分高度危险的房子，它们曾使公共住房声名狼藉，并已重建了一些城市的社区。The program has eliminated most of the high-rise hellholes that gave public housing a bad name and has revived some urban neighborhoods.但是它更多的是把享有补贴的公寓房夷为平地而不是取而代之。But it has razed more subsidized apartments than it has replaced.
5总的来说，自90年代初以来，接受联邦援助的家庭数已经降到最低，尽管人口不断增加、预算不断膨胀。Overall, the number of households receiving federal aid has flatlined since the early 1990s, despite an expanding population and a ballooning budget. 美国国会已经拒绝了美国总统布什提出的大部分的削减计划，但几乎没有讨论过增加计划；廉价房的倡导者花费的大部分时间都被用于努力争取保持现状。Congress has rejected most of President Bush’s proposed cuts, but there has been virtually no discussion of increases; affordable-housing advocates spend most of their time fighting to preserve the status quo.
6而现状真是很艰难。And it’s a tough status quo.今天，有450万低收入家庭享受联邦住房救助，还有3倍于此的家庭符合被救助资格，却拿不到救助。Today, for every one of the 4.5 millions low-income families that receives federal housing assistance, there are three eligible families without it.费尔法克斯县有12,000户家庭
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