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1.The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."

以前的经验显示，我们的商店在那些居对健康生活高度关注的地区是盈利最多的。因此我们应该把下一家连锁店开设在Plainsville，那里有很多这样的居。Plainsville的商家报告说运动鞋和运动衣的销售处于历史高点。当地一家五年前因缺乏客源而濒临倒闭的康体俱乐部现在的会员比以往任何时候都多，减肥训练和体操班总是满员。我们还可以预见到新生代的顾客群：Plainsville的在校学生被要求参加一个叫做"终生健康"的项目，它强调从小开始经常锻炼的好处。

1.作者没有提供足够的证据表明Plainsville的居民喜爱运动，运动鞋和运动衣的销售好不能说明这个问题，此外，健康俱乐部也一样

2.作者同样没有表明Plainsville一定能够成为Nature's Way的用户，学校让学生运动，不意味着要学生买Nature's Way的产品

3.忽略了其他因素：是否有什么eating habit；当地的运动永平的竞争是否激烈

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2.The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.

"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting."

七年前，附近的Brookville社区的业主实施了一系列关于该社区的庭院应如何布置以及房屋应涂何种颜色的规定。从那以后，Brookville的地产平均价格翻了三番。为使Deerhaven Acres 的地产升值，我们也应该对于景观和房屋涂色实施自己的规定。

1.作者没有提供证据说明产地价格升三倍一定是改变外观的结果，可能是别的措施

2.没有信息表明Deerhaven Acres和Brookville是可以比较的，可能……

3.其他因素：没有说明当地居民的传统习俗是否抵制使用相同的外观；其次，规定外观是否有其他不良影响，难以辨别自己的家等

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3.The following appeared in a newspaper article about law firms in the city of Megalopolis.

"In Megalopolis, the number of law school graduates who went to work for large, corporate firms declined by 15 percent over the last three years, whereas an increasing number of graduates took jobs at small, general practice firms. Even though large firms usually offer much higher salaries, law school graduates are choosing to work for the smaller firms most likely because they experience greater job satisfaction at smaller firms. In a survey of

first-year students at a leading law school, most agreed with the statement that earning a high salary was less important to them than job satisfaction. This finding suggests that the large, corporate firms of Megalopolis will need to offer graduates more benefits and incentives and reduce the number of hours they must work."

在Megalopolis，过去三年间在大型合伙事务所就职的法学院毕业生数量下降了15％，而在小型，一般性事务所就职的毕业生数量则在增加。尽管大型事务所通常提供高的多的薪水，法学院毕业生选择在小型事务所工作主要是因为他们感受到更高的工作满足感。一项对于顶尖法学院一年级学生的调查显示，多数人同意挣更多的钱没有工作满足感更重要的说法。这一现象启示我们，Megalopolis的大型合伙事务所应该给毕业生提供更多的福利和激励，并减少他们的工作时间。

1.作者没有说明在大公司工作的法学院毕业生数量下降的详细原因。可能因为学生数量减少

2.对于第一年学生的调查部能够表示所有毕业生也认为满足感更重要

3.忽略其他因素：没有迹象表明提高福利和激励，并肩上工作时间能够吸引学生来；其次没有说明Megalopolis最近是否有事件，可能影响学生到大公司就职。比如大公司虐待员工ill-treat the employees.

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4.The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.

"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town-Adams Realty and Fitch Realty-Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price,

you should use Adams."

在本市的两家最大的房地产经纪公司--Adams Realty和Fitch Realty--之中，Adams显然更优秀一些。Adams有40名房地产经纪人，而Fitch只有25个，且很多是兼职工作。而且，Adams 去年的收入是Fitch的两倍，其平均房价为$168000，而Fitch仅为$144000。在Adams销售的房屋卖得也更快：十年前，我把我的房产交给Fitch，它用了四个多月才卖出去；去年，我在Adams卖了另一处房产，仅用一个月就售出了。因此，要想让你的房产卖的更快更好，你应该选择Adams。

1.作者没有说明Adams的详细情况。他虽然有40名房地产经纪人，但是否都是兼职，此外，Adams是否经营的房子和Fitch一样，可能经营的是豪华的房子，可能168,000算便宜的好房子，而144,000是贵的差房子

2.作者没有足够的信息说明Adams买房子比Fitch慢，可能是季节不同

3.其他因素：收入是两倍不一定利润高，可能Fitch的经营情况更好；没有考虑费用是否相同

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5.The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.

"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next

twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe

that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable

pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis."

鉴于我国在未来20年中患某种形式关节炎的人数预计将从4千万上升至6千万，生产治疗关节炎药物的制药公司将获得巨大利润。很多分析家相信，生产最畅销关节炎药物Xenon的Becton Pharmaceuticals将会在十年后成为利润最高的制药公司。但Xenon的专利在三年内就要到期了，到时其他公司将能够生产该药的廉价版。因此，十年后利润最高的公司更有可能是Perkins Pharmaceuticals，该公司生产一种叫做Xylan的新药，临床调查表明在患最严重关节炎的患者中10个有7个倾向于Xylan而不是Xenon。

1.首先，不能因为3年后药物的专利到期，别的厂就一定能够生产廉价版本的药物。可能继续，或者难以得到制作方法

2.临床调查不一定能够说明所有人都是如此，许多人根本不去医院，在家里购买治疗

3.其他因素：没有说明Xylan的详细信息，可能效果不一定好，或者专利期更短；也没有说明Perkins制药的具体情况，可能是个小公司，没有能力生产太多的药，甚至可能被Becton收购annex to…

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6.The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our

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