在过去,Alta工厂的工伤事故比邻近的Panoply工厂多30%,Panoply的每班工作时间比我们的短一个小时。专家相信导致很多工伤事故的重要因素就是工人的疲劳和睡眠不足。因此,为减少Alta的工伤事故数量并提高生产数量,我们应该把我们的三个班次的工作时间每个都减少一小时,从而我们的雇员将有更充足的睡眠。
1.没有信息表明Alta Manufacturing的事故率高的30%是因为时间比Panoply Industries长一个小时
2.没有说明Alta Manufacturing的工人睡眠不足以及疲惫
3.其他因素:没有说明减少时间会否带来其他负面的影响;Panoply Industries和Alta Manufacturing是否是相同的工厂,可能Panoply Industries不是做重工业的
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13.The following appeared in a memo from the chief executive of a video game company.
"We have recently been offered the opportunity to buy the rights to produce a video game based on the soon-to-be-published children's book "Squirrel Power," by Peter Wood. While the cost of the rights is substantial and will place economic constraints on our company in the short-term, there are two reasons that the purchase of these rights will undoubtedly be a wise investment. First, Wood's last three books have been best sellers and the movie based on his first book was highly profitable. Second, the popular characters and story line in "Squirrel Power" will save us time in developing our video game, thereby reducing our costs." 我们最近获得了购买一个游戏的生产权的机会,该游戏基于即将出版的由Peter
Wood所写的儿童文学《松鼠力量》。尽管购买该生产权的代价比较高昂并将会给本公司的财政造成短期的压力,但我们有两个理由认为购买该生产权无疑是一项明智的投资。首先,Wood 的前三本书非常畅销,基于他第一本书改编的电影获得了很高的盈利。其次,《松鼠力量》中受人欢迎的角色和情节将节省我们制作游戏所用的时间,从而节约我们的成本。
1、Wood的最近三本书热卖和Squirrel Power的畅销之间并没有直接的联系
2、流行的角色不一定能够直接应用到视频游戏中,而且更不能说就一定能节约开发成本和节约时间
3、此外,作者没有提供其他因素,说服购买儿童书籍的版权就一定能挣钱。比如,该而同书籍何时出版以及游戏的开发周期要多长,如果在书籍上市的时候,游戏不能够尽快推出,一旦实际已过,就会影响游戏的销售量。此外,该儿童书籍的内容也没有透露,如果该书籍的内容是普及科学知识,而没有扣人心选的情节的话,人们很可能不会对游戏感兴趣。
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14.The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.
"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
有证据表明消费者对于自己种植蔬菜越来越感兴趣。上个月举行的一项国家调查显示很多消费者对于超市上供应的新鲜蔬菜的质量不满意。在本地,园艺杂志《大花园》在"Village News"报亭连续三个月售磬。因此,我们Green Thumb Gardening Center可以通过大量增加今春为园艺爱好者准备的蔬菜种子的种类而增加盈利。
1、全国的调查显示的消费者对市场出售的蔬菜不满意,并不一定意味着郊外城镇的蔬菜也不好
2、杂志的销售量高并不一定意味着购买杂志的普通居民多,同样也不意味着购买杂志的居民都想种蔬菜
3、此外,作者还疏忽了许多其他因素:比如,本地居民是否喜爱自己种蔬菜;还有,本地居民喜欢种植哪些蔬菜,如果本地居民只喜欢种植少数几个种类的蔬菜,增加种子的多样性是不会盈利的。
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15.The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
最近一次调查中超过80%的回应者表达了他们想减少含脂肪和胆固醇的食品的愿望,现在很多食品商店都提供丰富的低脂肪食品。由于Old Dairy Industries当前生产的很多产品都有很高的脂肪和胆固醇含量,该公司的销量有可能严重下降,其盈利无疑会减少。因而我们建议Old Dairy的贡持有者抛出他们所持的股份,其他投资者也不应购买该公司的股份。
1、作者没有说明调查的具体信息:调查对象等
2、没有支持详细的证据证明Old Dairy的价格会下降以及盈利会减少
3、作者没有考虑其他因素:Old Dairy近期的发展计划;
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16.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a citizen of the state of Impecunia.
"Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spends more per pupil than we do, and Lucria's public health program treats far more people than our state's program does. If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria, the profits could be used to improve our educational system and public health program. The new lottery would doubtless be successful, because a survey conducted in our capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling."
两年前我们相邻的州Lucria开展了州际彩票活动来增加用于教育和公共医疗的财政收入。现在,Lucria对于每个小学生的平均开支比我们多,Lucria的公共医疗体系接待的人数也比我们的多很多。如果我们也建立一套和Lucria类似的彩票系统,其盈利可以被用来改我们的教育系统和公共医疗体系。新的彩票无疑会成,因为在我们的首府举办的一次调查显示Impecuni的居每人每年用于博彩的平均支出已经达到$50。
1、作者没有提供证据证明Lucria现在的公众健康和学生费用高是因为2年前的抽奖法的结构。
2、使用capital city的调查情况说明全部的州的情况是不全面的。
3、作者还忽略了其它因素:比如抽奖法是否对于Impecunia的发展有利,如果过分的使用抽奖法筹募资金,会让许多人热衷于买彩票而忽略了她的工作,从而损害了Impecunia州的发展。没有说明Impecunia和Lucria有可比性
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17.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove town newspaper.
"Walnut Grove's town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal (which has had the contract for trash collection services in Walnut Grove for the past ten years) to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its monthly fee from $2,000 to $2,500 a month, whereas ABC's fee is still $2,000. But the town council is mistaken; we should continue using EZ. EZ collects trash twice a week, while ABC collects only once. Moreover, EZ-which, like ABC, currently has a fleet of 20 trucks-has ordered additional trucks. Finally, EZ provides exceptional service: 80 percent of respondents to last year's town survey agreed that they were 'satisfied' with EZ's performance."
Walnut Grove的市委提议选择ABC Waste,而不是EZ Disposal(它是过去十年中和Walnut Grove签约提供垃圾收集服务的机构),因为EZ最近把他们每月的收费从$2000提高到了$2500,而ABC仍然是$2000。但市委是错误的,我们应该继续使用EZ。EZ每周收集两次垃圾,而ABC只收集一次。而且,EZ当前的卡车拥有量和ABC一样都是20辆,但它已定购了更多的车辆。最后,EZ还提供优越的服务:去年市镇调查中80%的回应者同意他们对于EZ 的表现是"满意"的。
1、作者认为EZ比ABC更值得,基于EZ一周手机两次垃圾而ABC只有一次。但并没有提出详细的信息证明一个月清理两次垃圾对于Walnut Grove是必要的。
2、此外,作者还指出EZ正在订购额外的卡车并提供许多额外服务,但并没有提供ABC的情
况。首先,没必要,其次说不准ABC也有。
3、作者还忽略了许多其它因素:比如作者引用的调查的一些情况,可能参与这个调查的人很少,因此不能代表全部公民。也没有说明民众对于ABC的态度
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18.The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.
"In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago."
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